How will the labour market change in the second half of 2026?

According to the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH), 4.646 million people were employed in Hungary in June 2026, while the unemployment rate stood at 4.4%. The average rate for the second quarter was 4.5%. These figures do not indicate a labour market collapse, but rather a slowdown and growing caution. In the coming months, organizations that use scenario-based, skills-focused workforce planning instead of rapid headcount reactions may be in a stronger position.

What is the starting point for the Hungarian labour market in the second half of 2026?

The data from early summer paint a mixed picture. Employment remains above 4.6 million, but according to KSH data, 66,000 fewer people were employed in June 2026 than a year earlier. Alongside the rise in unemployment, the average duration of job seeking increased to 12.5 months, while more than one-third of unemployed people had been looking for work for at least a year.

From an employer perspective, this does not necessarily mean easier recruitment. The number of applicants may rise in some areas, while candidates with the required expertise, digital skills or industry experience may still remain scarce. The labour market may therefore become looser and remain tight at the same time: overall vacancy levels may decline, while competition for critical skills stays strong.

Gender differences are also worth monitoring. In the second quarter of 2026, the unemployment rate was 4.1% for men and 4.9% for women. This suggests that the effects of the slowdown are not distributed evenly across all employee groups, so aggregated indicators alone are not sufficient when analysing headcount and retention data.

Why is recruitment becoming more cautious in the second half of the year?

Some companies are taking a wait-and-see approach because of uncertain demand, cost pressure and weaker growth prospects. According to analyst expectations, the unemployment rate may be around 4.6% for 2026 as a whole, and there is currently no clear factor pointing to a rapid turnaround. In practice, this may mean not a complete hiring freeze, but stricter position approvals and more targeted recruitment at many organizations.

Instead of broad-based expansion, priority may shift to roles that directly support revenue generation, digitalization, efficiency improvements or regulatory compliance. The role of HR will increasingly be less about refilling every vacant position in exactly the same form. The first question should be whether the work can be reorganized, automated or covered through internal mobility.

What are the risks of short-term downsizing?

Reducing headcount too quickly can later lead to costly rebuilding. In an international LHH study, 78% of HR leaders described layoffs as a recurring operational phenomenon. The research also found that organizations often rehire former employees or professionals with similar expertise within a short period of time—at a higher cost and with a loss of institutional knowledge.

In the second half of the year, workforce reductions should therefore be preceded by role and skills analysis. The key question is not simply how many employees are needed, but which capabilities will be essential to achieving business goals over the next 12–24 months.

How is AI reshaping jobs and skill requirements?

The impact of AI in 2026 is increasingly difficult to describe simply in terms of job creation or job losses. What is changing more fundamentally is the value and composition of tasks. According to the Future Workforce Index 2026, pay for simple tasks based on generative AI may decline, while the wage premium for complex, AI-supported expert work may increase. The value will not lie in using an AI tool in itself, but in the professional expertise that enables an employee to apply it to better decisions, faster processes or improved customer service.

This creates three immediate priorities for HR:

• map which tasks in which roles are affected by automation;
• define the required combination of AI, data-management and professional skills;
• develop training programs linked to specific workflows rather than providing only general AI knowledge.

Trust is also critical during implementation. Measuring every detail of performance or over-monitoring AI use can discourage experimentation. It is more effective to measure business outcomes, quality, turnaround time and risk, while providing employees with clear data-security and ethical frameworks.

Why are skills becoming central to workforce planning?

One of the key findings of the McKinsey HR Monitor 2026 is that traditional planning based on positions and headcount is increasingly unable to keep pace with rapidly changing roles. If an organization only knows how many people work in an area, but not which skills they possess, it becomes difficult to make informed decisions about internal redeployment, training or automation.

A skills-based approach is also transforming recruitment. As AI makes it easy to create keyword-optimized CVs, the CV itself may become less reliable as standalone evidence of capability. Structured interviews, work samples, professional tasks and measurable competencies may gain importance. Instead of qualifications or previous job titles, the focus shifts toward what candidates can actually do and how quickly they can learn new skills.

What makes employee retention more effective?

A more uncertain labour market does not automatically guarantee that key employees will stay. In a 2026 international survey, more than 60% of respondents ranked reducing turnover and increasing engagement among the three most important HR priorities. Retention, however, can increasingly no longer be reduced to salary increases or additional benefits.

For employees, predictable leadership, development opportunities, fair pay, flexible work arrangements and credible communication together shape the employee experience. Especially during reorganizations, managers need to explain what is changing, why it is changing and what it means for the individual. Failing to address uncertainty can often damage engagement more than the difficult decision itself.

In the second half of the year, particular attention should be paid to critical roles, hard-to-replace knowledge and high-performing but overloaded employees. Instead of relying on company-wide averages, team-, manager- and role-level data can help identify where the risk of attrition is increasing.

What should HR leaders prepare for in the second half of 2026?

In an uncertain environment, stability comes not from a single annual plan, but from a decision-making system that can be updated quickly. The following steps can help HR not only react to labour market changes, but anticipate their impact as a business partner.

• Create at least three workforce scenarios: a baseline, a growth case and a downturn case.
• Identify critical roles and skills, as well as single-person knowledge risks.
• Review vacant positions: do they need to be refilled in the same form, or can the work be redesigned?
• Link AI training to specific roles, business goals and data-security rules.
• Strengthen internal mobility, succession planning and managerial accountability for retention.
• Standardize and keep HR data up to date so decisions are not based on isolated Excel spreadsheets and manual reports.

How can HR digitalization support all of this?

Fast decisions require reliable, up-to-date and comparable data. If headcount, absence, working-time, training, performance and pay data are stored in separate systems or manual records, HR may only identify risks with a delay. Integrated digital HR solutions can help managers plan capacity, track changes and prepare decisions based on real data.

NEXON solutions create a more unified data foundation for organizational operations by digitalizing HR administration, working-time and absence management, payroll processes and employee workflows. This does not replace HR strategy, but it can make execution faster and better informed—especially when headcount, costs and available skills need to be assessed together.

The labour market in the second half of 2026 is likely to be defined by greater selectivity. Companies are expanding more cautiously, while still having to compete for critical skills. AI is accelerating the transformation of jobs, while economic uncertainty increases the risks associated with short-term headcount decisions.

For HR leaders, the key task is therefore not simply to reduce or increase headcount, but to ensure that the organization has the right capabilities. Scenario-based planning, visibility into skills, internal mobility, credible management communication and consistent HR data can together provide a stable foundation for decisions in the months ahead.

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